WSOP Main Event

Just a reminder that today is the start of the World Series of Poker Main Event.

As always - the best place to follow the WSOP is over at Dr. Pauly's place the Tao of Poker.

I'm not misogynistic but the only prop bet I have on the WSOP Main Event is that no woman will make the final 25 (-$185). Just a numbers thing. I'm pretty sure the guys out number the gals by at least a 25-1 ratio.

My NL All-Star Team

Here are the players who I see as the most deserving to be playing in St. Louis in the summer classic. The back-ups are in parenthesis.

C - Brian McCann - Braves (Bengie Molina - Giants)
1st - Albert Pujols - Cardinals (Prince Fielder - Brewers)
2nd - Chase Utley - Phillies (Freddie Sanchez - Pirates)
SS - Hanley Ramirez - Marlins (Miguel Tejada - Astros)
3rd - David Wright - Mets (Mark Reynolds - Diamondbacks)
OF - Ryan Braun - Brewers (Brad Hawpe - Rockies)
OF - Raul Ibanez - Phillies (Matt Kemp - Dodgers)
OF - Justin Upton - Diamondbacks (Jason Werth - Phillies)

Here are the 10 pitchers who I see as most deserving to be on the team:

1. Tim Lincecum - Giants
2. Dan Haren - Diamondbacks
3. Josh Johnson - Marlins
4. Matt Cain - Giants
5. Yovani Gallardo - Brewers
6. Chad Billingsley - Dodgers
7. Jonathan Broxton - Dodgers
8. Heath Bell - Padres
9. Francisco Rodriguez - Mets
10. Huston Street - Rockies

That leaves 6 spots on the 32-man roster and I still need representatives from the Nationals, Reds and Cubs. Here's how I would fill out the final 6 spots:

1. Adrian Gonzalez - Padres
2. Ryan Zimmerman - Nationals
3. Pablo Sandoval - Giants
4. Johnny Cueto - Reds
5. Ted Lilly - Cubs
6. Ryan Howard - Phillies

You could pick just about any one of the following for that last spot but I picked Howard simply because I figure Charlie Manuel will end up adding Howard anyway. Toughest omissions (two of these players are likely to be picked since they expanded the roster to 33 and Ibanez is injured); Orlando Hudson - Dodgers, Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies, Jason Marquis - Rockies, Brandon Phillips - Reds, Javy Vazquez - Braves, Johan Santana - Mets, Chris Carpenter - Cardinals, Jair Jurrjens - Braves, Francisco Cordero - Reds and Chipper Jones - Braves

Top 5 - AL Players Who May Be Trade Bait

Here are 5 AL players who are probably being shopped as you read this.

Matt Holliday - A's - $13.5 million 2009 contract - I think he definitely gets traded mostly for financial reasons. The A's just can't afford him. They should get a better haul back on Holliday than what they gave up for him. He would fit best with a NL team in need of a bat.

Aubrey Huff - Orioles - $8 million 2009 contract - Huff has a line of 10 HR / 52 RBI / .270 BA. He's an available 1B /DH for a team that needs a bat (especially a left-handed bat). I'm not a fan and I question how Huff would handle a big-city pennant race. Huff will probably be a Type A free agent so whatever a team gives up for him may come back to them with draft picks (assuming Huff does not accept arbitration which is a risk I wouldn't be willing to take on Huff - do you really want to take the risk of having to pay Huff $11 million in 2010?).

Cliff Lee - Indians - $5.75 million 2009 contract with a $9 million 2010 team option. If Lee is traded it will be because the Indians have too much money tied up in bad Kerry Woods, bad Jake Westbrook and bad Travis Hafner. If Cliff Lee is traded - Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge should both be shown the door. My guess is that Lee will not be traded though because it would be admitting to everyone that the Indians have failed on the field and on the budget front and that would lead to Shapiro and Wedge getting fired. It's a Catch 22 for the Indians.

Adam Kennedy - A's - $4 million 2009 contract - would be a good fit for a playoff contender with a need at 2nd base (the Mets and Tampa Bay are two potential landing spots).

Mark Teahen - Royals - $3.5 million 2009 contract - Teahen is arbitration eligible for 2 more seasons and he can play 3rd, OF or 2nd in a pinch. That makes him attractive trade bait. For whatever reasons the Royals have been down on Teahen (Alex Gordon being reason A Teahen has been shunted in KC). I'm not sure the Royals want to be paying Teahen $5 million next season. If Mike Lowell's hip is worse than thought - I'd look for the Red Sox to make a play for Teahen.

Pick of the Day

Tonight I'm going with the Angels as my pick of the day (POTD). Jeremy Guthrie is starting for the Orioles and he's been solid as of late but the Orioles are generally not a good road team and after the excitement from the past 2 games and cross country travel - I'm guessing the team as a whole will be emotionally and physically just a step behind. The Angels are a -$157 favorite.

POTD record - 6-2 and plus a mythical $365.

Simon Pegg

I like Simon Pegg. I mean what's not to like? He's probably best known as the actor / writer of movies such as Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead. Trivia wise - I love that he played Captain Sobel's lackey Sgt. Evans in Band of Brothers.

Last night Simon Pegg moved up to a new level. I saw Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Simon Pegg completely stole the show as Buck(minster).

My AL All-Star Team

Here are the players who I see as the most deserving to be playing in St. Louis in the summer classic. The back-ups are in parenthesis.

C - Joe Mauer - Twins (Victor Martinez - Indians)
1st - Justin Morneau - Twins (Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox)
2nd - Ian Kinsler - Rangers (Aaron Hill - Blue Jays)
SS - Jason Bartlett - Rays (Derek Jeter - Yankees)
3rd - Evan Longoria - Rays (Chone Figgins - Angels)
OF - Carl Crawford - Rays (Ichiro Suzuki - Mariners)
OF - Torii Hunter - Angels (Adam Lind - Blue Jays)
OF - Jason Bay - Red Sox (Jermaine Dye - White Sox)

Here are the 10 pitchers who I see as most deserving to be on the team:

1. Zach Greinke - Royals
2. Roy Halladay - Blue Jays
3. Justin Verlander - Tigers
4. Felix Hernandez - Mariners
5. Josh Beckett - Red Sox
6. Joe Nathan - Twins
7. Mariano Rivera - Yankees
8. Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox
9. Kevin Millwood - Rangers
10. Edwin Jackson - Tigers

That leaves 6 spots on the 32-man roster and I still need representatives from the Orioles and A's. Here's how I would fill out the final 6 spots:

1. Adam Jones - Orioles (he's the most deserving Oriole - although an argument could be made for Nick Markakis, George Sherrill, Luke Scott or rookie Brad Bergesen)
2. Andrew Bailey - A's (you could pick starter Dallas Braden as the A's representative and I wouldn't argue - it would stink if Matt Holliday gets chosen strictly because of his name)
3. Tim Wakefield - Red Sox (sentimental choice)
4. Miguel Cabrera - Tigers
5. Ben Zobrist - Rays
6. Russell Branyan - Mariners

That's my team. Every organization is represented. A little heavy in 1st basemen but what can you do (besides use Youkilis at 3rd)? Toughest omissions; Mark Teixeira - Yankees, Marco Scutaro - Blue Jays, Carlos Pena - Rays, Jered Weaver - Angels, Brian Fuentes - Angels and Johnny Damon - Yankees.

Pick of the Day

The Red Sox with Josh Beckett pitching is today's pick. This won't be a typical getaway day for the Sox. They will be looking to avenge last night's debacle. Josh Beckett won't let them lose today. The Sox are a -$150 favorite but they are the pick.

POTD record - 5-2 and a plus $265 mythical dollars.

It was the Best of Games - It was the Worst of Games

It really was the story of two games last night. In the first game John Smoltz was extremely effective and the Red Sox bats owned Orioles pitching. After exactly half a game (4.5 innings) the Red Sox were up 9-1.

In the second game Mark Hendricks of the Orioles tames the Red Sox bats and the Red Sox bullpen fell apart. In the second (half) game the Orioles beat the Red Sox 10-1.

If this was poker - this game would be known as a "bad beat". Thing is about bad beats - nobody wants to hear you complain about them. You just say "that's poker" and move on.

Twitter

I just joined Twitter. You can follow me at @ALargeRegular.

In the immortal words of Bartles & James - I thank you for your support.

Oh - if you think of someone I should be following on Twitter - let me know.

Pick of the Day

My first choice was Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals against San Francisco but the price of -$200 was just too high. Almost as good a pick is Johan Santana and the Mets looking to halt a 4-game losing skid.

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Mets -$130 at Milwaukee (odds via Bodog).

POTD record - 5-1 overall with a plus $395 mythical dollar amount.

Red Sox Magic Number - 84

With the 4-0 win over the Orioles last night - the Red Sox magic number is now 84.

I wanted to comment that 84 was the year U2 released the CD The Unforgettable Fire which featured the song Bad. I am reminded of this because earlier today I bought the CD at CVS for $9.99. I was at CVS so that my daughter could buy a musical birthday card and I happened to see the CD for sale. Impulse sale.

In 1983 the Orioles won the World Series and it seems like to me that they have been "Bad" ever since. The decline of "the Oriole Way" in my mind started in 84 and by 86 they were in last place - just like today.

I haven't mentioned the death of Michael Jackson mostly because I wasn't a fan. I was New Wave - what's now called First Wave - not Pop. More Joe Strummer than Michael Moonwalker. I do want to say that for my money U2's Bad kicked Michale Jackson's Bad's ass.

Sports Betting

Interesting column looking at the economics of paying for picks.

I've always thought of those "guaranteed winners" bozos as nothing but scammers. The question always raised is if the picks are so good why don't the handicappers just bet on their own picks and ride off into the sunset as rich men?

At least my picks are worth what you pay for them.

Pick of the Day

Tonight I'm going with the Red Sox with Jon Lester starting over the Orioles with Jason Berken toeing the rubber. Nick Green is starting for the Red Sox and Julio Lugo is not. That equals a Red Sox win. The Red Sox are a -$163 favorite.

Yesterday I hit the Brazil / Royals parlay to bring the record to 4-1 overall with a plus $295 mythical dollar amount.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Trent Green fills in for Peter King on Monday Morning Quarterback and does a much better job than Peter. If only we could make the switch permanent... The Go-Go's had a hit with 1981's Our Lips are Sealed. For the longest time I thought they were singing "Honored to see you". Just heard the song and was reminded of that tidbit... One bone to pick with Trent Green though - he says that Jay Cutler has a chance to pass for more then 4,000 yards this season but doesn't mention Kyle Orton. I think Orton will pass for more yards this year than Cutler. When the NFL prop bets are up - I'll even put money on it... It's tough to feel bad for a millionaire but I do feel kinda bad for Xavier Nady. He is basically out for this year while he gets Tommy John surgery and is probably out for next year too. No team will take a chance on him since he's a Type A free agent and would cost any team taking a flyer on him a first round draft pick. The way things are going though - I wouldn't be surprised if Nady qualified for stimulus money...

Pick of the Day

Today I have a bit of a quandary. I'm trying to narrow my pick of the day (POTD) down from three choices which all have their own merits.

Choice 1 - Brazil over the USA in soccer. I think this game is a lock but I feel queezey betting against the US and the line at -$350 for Brazil would really punish me if I'm wrong.

Choice 2 - Kansas City with Zach Greinke pitching over the Pirates. The price is a bit high for a road team (KC -$150) but I think Greinke will dominate the Pittsburgh lineup.

Choice 3 - Tigers with Edwin Jackson (-$131) over Houston with Ancient Mariner Russ Ortiz taking the hill. The Tigers burned me the other night by blowing a 4 run lead against the Astros and Edwin Jackson always seems to bite me when I pick him or pick against him (if he was a college football team he'd be Syracuse).

Compromise is the answer I think. Today's POTD is a parlay using Brazil and Kansas City. Risking $100 would bring back $114.

POTD record 3-1 - plus $181.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

The MLB trading season gets underway with the Indians shipping Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later. Supposedly the PTBNL is to come from an already agreed on list and the Indians can basically pick the player at the end of the season they like best. This could turn into a very good trade for the Indians. Then again - if Mark DeRosa is a type A free agent and St Louis gets 2 high draft picks when DeRosa leaves as a free agent - then this could turn into a very good move by the Cardinals... Wow - Mel Brooks turns 83 today. Happy birthday funnyman... When I was a kid bodybuilding was at its height. One of my favorite bodybuilders was Frank Zane whose birthday it is today (happy 67th birthday Frank). Zane's nickname was "the chemist" and I was so naive that I never read anything into that...

Connections

(I wrote a variation of this two years ago but I thought I'd run it again today.)

The historian James Burke had a very entertaining TV show called Connections that makes a chain of "connections" from an event in the past to a surprising result of that event in the present.

Based upon today's date - I'm going to do a version of Connections of my own.

On this date back in 1914 the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was shot and killed in Sarajevo. This caused Austria-Hungary's declaration of war against Serbia.

August 1st is generally regarded as the anniversary of the beginning of World War I in 1914 (when Germany declared war on Russia because Russia had declared war on Austria because Austria had declared war on Serbia because a Serb assassinated Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand on July 28th).

Personally I think the real war started on August 3, 1914 when Germany declared war on France and followed that up with the invasion of Belgium the following day (because the quickest way to Paris was through neutral Belgium). However, that's neither here nor there. The connection I want to focus on actually started on this date in 1914.

In 1914 the Turks had two state of the art battleships being built by the British. The ships had cost $30,000,000 in 1914 dollars (which is a lot of money now but a fortune back then). On July 28th the British thought that those two ships (the Sultan Osman and the Reshadieh) would come in handy in the upcoming war - so under the direction of Winston Churchill - the British "requisitioned" them (and they also kept the $30,000,000).

This did not sit well with the Turks who had been trying to stay neutral in the whole brewing fiasco but this bit of thievery may have tipped them toward the Germans. On August 10th the German ships Goeben and Breslau entered the Dardenelles and were soon given to the Turks to replace the two ships the British had stolen. This gesture was well received and basically put the Turks on the side of the Germans.

If the Turks did not enter the war on the side of the Germans then there may never have been the bloody massacre at Gallipoli.

If there was no battle of Gallipoli - then there probably would have not been a movie of the same name. This 1981 movie helped continue the career of a fairly unknown Australian actor who would use his role in Gallipoli to help gain him entree into the American film market by starring in the 1984 film The Bounty.

It is entirely possible that if the movie Gallipoli was never made that Mel Gibson would have remained simply a star in Australia. And news of what crazy Australians spout off when they get arrested in Australia for drunk driving never makes the news in the US.

So Mel Gibson may want to blame the Jews for all the wars in the world but in this series of connections it was the greedy British who miscalculated.

Red Sox Magic Number - 85

With the 1-0 victory over the Braves yesterday - the Red Sox magic number is now 85.

Today most people think Ochocinco (Chad Johnson's new surname) when the number 85 comes up in sports. Count me as as "not a fan" when it comes to Chad "Ochocinco" Johnson. Remind me - what has he won? Good thing that the Red Sox are the anti-ochocinco type team. No "look at me" attention seekers who place themselves above the team. Makes the Red Sox that much more likable.

With his win yesterday - Tim Wakefield now has 188 for his career. There have only been 139 pitchers in the history of baseball to have more career victories. Wakefield has never had a 20-win season but with 10 before the All-Star break this might be his best chance.

Pick of the Day

Tough loss last night as the Tigers roared out to a 4-0 lead only to lose 5-4 to the Astros.

Today I like the Phillies taking on the Blue Jays up in Toronto for my Pick of the Day (POTD). Bodog has the Phillies as a slight -$124 favorite. This will be the Phillies second time seeing Blue Jays starter Brad Mills and they raked him the first time out. Seeing how Mills was 1-8 in AAA ball before getting promoted because the rash of injuries to Toronto starters - I see similar results this time out.

Brad Mills is also the name of the Red Sox bench coach and I know that Brad Mills is rooting for the Phillies to beat AL East foe Toronto as well.

It occurred to me that I really can't go by just record while keeping track of baseball picks - so I'm going to assume a mythical $100 placed on each pick and also keep track of the dollar amounts.

POTD Record 2-1 - plus $81

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Jermaine Dye is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career. The 35-year old Dye hit his 17th HR of the year last night and is on pace to hit 40 for the season... This is very funny. Elvis Grbac you sexy thing - or not... Today would have been the 313th birthday of William Pepperrell one of the original American Horatio Alger-type success stories and the man for whom Pepperrell, Mass is named for... A-Rod passed Reggie Jackson in HR last night for 11th place on the all-time list with 564 HR's. Jim Thome is now just 10 HR away from catching Reggie too... I have seen every episode of Band of Brothers dozens of times and it never dawned on me that the actor who played Lt. Jones - Colin Hanks - was the son of Band of Brothers executive producer and uber star Tom Hanks... As I mentioned in an earlier post - the Red Sox magic number is now 86 which happens to be the number of episodes made of the HBO blockbuster The Sopranos. The Wire had fewer episodes but was the much better show... Opponents are hitting better than .300 against the Twins' Kevin Slowey. His 10 wins are a mirage... Today would have been Willie Mosconi's 96th birthday. In my mind Mosconi is without a doubt the greatest pool player who ever lived...

Red Sox Magic Number

With the win over the Braves last night - the Red Sox new magic number is now 86.

There are 86 metals on the modern periodic table but MLB won't let you use any of them to make bats. Wood only if you please. Too bad because Dustin Pedroia (hitting just .220 in June with a measly .571 OPS) and Kevin Youkilis (hitting just .203 in June) look like they could use an aluminum or some other metal bat right about now. The struggles of the 1 and 3 hitters in the line-up makes you wonder if Terry Francona is considering shuffling the line-up sometime soon.

David Ortiz is hitting .311 with 7 HR in June. If Ortiz stays hot and Youkilis continues to struggle - will Francona consider swapping the two sluggers in the batting order? Jacoby Ellsbury has been hitting .328 with a .413 OBP in June so would Francona consider putting Ellsbury back to lead-off and dropping Pedroia back to the 2-hole? Inquiring minds want to know.

Also any Red Sox fan worth their salt knows that 86 is the number of years the Red Sox had to wait between World Series wins before taking the title back in 2004.

The Steroids Era in a Nutshell

Last night Alex Rodriguez hit his 564th HR to pass Reggie Jackson and move into 11th place on the all-time list. This short paragraph in the AP game story seemed to encapsulate the steroids era in just two brief sentences.

Jackson was sixth when he retired in 1987, trailing only Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson and Harmon Killebrew. He’s since been passed by Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and A-Rod.

Of those who passed Reggie on the all-time list - only Ken Griffey Jr. has not been sullied by steroids allegations up till this point.